Driving the Global Transition to Battery Electric Buses

January 20, 2025

In this episode of Stop Requested, Christian Londono and Levi McCollum explore the global landscape of battery electric bus adoption. From Shenzhen’s fully electrified fleet to the ambitious goals in Latin America and Europe, they examine the challenges, successes, and trends shaping zero-emission transit worldwide. Tune in as they discuss the impact of policies like Buy America, the role of global manufacturers, and the environmental implications of electric vehicle batteries. Don’t miss this insightful continuation of their series on zero-emission vehicles!

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Episode Transcript

00:00 Stop Requested.

00:02 Levi McCollum: Welcome to Stop Requested, the podcast where we discuss everything transit. I’m your co-host, Levi McCollum, product manager at ETA Transit.

00:11 Christian Londono: And I’m your co-host, Christian Londono, Senior Customer Success Manager at ETA Transit. Hey Levi, how you doing today?

00:22 Levi McCollum: I’m doing pretty well. How are you, Christian?

00:24 Christian Londono: Really good and very excited about our episode today.

00:29 Levi McCollum: Absolutely.

00:31 Christian Londono: So today’s episode is a continuation of our last discussion, our series on zero-emission vehicles and particularly the transition to battery electric buses. So last time we talked about that transition, battery electric vehicle, zero emissions within the US market. We talk about challenges, you know, best practices, implementations, you know, some of the recommendations and some of the trends that we see in the U.S. Now, this episode, the second part of the series, we’re going to have a very interesting conversation, Levi, and it’s because we’re going to look at the global picture of battery electric vehicles and implementation. So I’m just really excited, and I know you prepared a few notes yourself as well for this conversation. So let’s just dive into it.

01:24 Levi McCollum: Yes, let’s do it.

01:25 Levi McCollum: Let’s talk about it.

01:27 Christian Londono: So when we think about the adoption of battery electric buses, we have to go to Asia, and everything restarted in China. And it’s taken a few years for other regions around the world to start that transition as well. But something that is very interesting when you’re looking at the global perspective is actually seeing that almost all these different places around the world are following that trend, even though it started in China and, you know, in Asia, but all these other regions and countries have started to follow suit as well. So I want to start discussing those different regions and, you know, of course, first talk about China and what it means for the world, but particularly for China when, you know, you’re talking about cities that are very congested and have a lot of pollution. So let’s start with Asia and let’s start the conversation right there.

02:23 Levi McCollum: Yeah, that’s a good one. I want to lead off with a statistic that is pretty resounding to me. Hopefully, it is to you and to our audience. Shenzhen, China, was the first city that fully electrified its fleet.

02:36 Levi McCollum: And it wasn’t, you know, maybe a thousand buses or 2,500 vehicles, something like that. Nope, 16,000 vehicles they electrified.

02:50 Levi McCollum: And this wasn’t last year. This was in 2018. They have been doing this a long time. They have the manufacturing backing, they have the long-term vision to make this happen. You don’t just get there by gradually trying to switch out your fleet. It is a full-focused effort to make sure that your fleet is 100% electric when you have that large of a number. I mean, to me, that’s just astounding. I can’t believe it.

03:21 Christian Londono: 16,000 battery electric buses. Wow. Just thinking about the number because I don’t think we have a quarter of electric buses in the US right now, you know, like a quarter of that number of US battery electric buses. So, I mean, that’s impressive. And that’s one transit system, one city in China, right?

03:48 Levi McCollum: That’s exactly right, yeah. Shenzhen. I mean, it’s a megacity, it’s huge. And it has millions of people. So it does make sense in some degree. You know, you can’t really compare an enormous megacity like that with, you know, some city in the middle of the United States. But to be able to do that, it just shows that there’s a concerted effort.

04:10 Levi McCollum: And you’re right, the trend is moving this way. I think this is globally, and as we’ll continue to talk about, there are more places that are looking to do the same, maybe not quite as quickly as China. And I think there are political reasons, of course, why China is able to get to where they are right now in terms of electrification, but some of these other cities are, you know, maybe running close behind.

04:36 Christian Londono: Yeah, I think, you know, something you talk about megacities in China, and something that, you know, from what I recall, China has been known for is having a lot of pollution in their big cities, so much that people cannot really see the sky. It’s all, you know, covered in smog and, you know, pollution altogether. So it makes sense that they’re the leaders in implementing zero-emissions technology, particularly battery electric, and trying to reduce the emissions. You know, I’ll be interested to know if there’s any data related to Shenzhen and the reduction of emissions. Of course, public transportation only makes, you know, a piece of the pie compared to all the emissions. A lot of times, you know, private transport and just other industries account for more of the emissions. But it’s still, you know, cutting all the public transit in the city to zero emissions has to have a really positive impact in, you know, the quality of air and just the quality of life of those people in the city.

04:42 Christian Londono: I wanted to share, you know, thank you for sharing that statistic about Shenzhen. I found another statistic in China that is also very interesting. You talk about by 2018, 16,000 buses in Shenzhen. Well, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, at the end of 2017, there were 3 million city buses in operation worldwide. So we’re looking at 3,000,000 buses in the world in operation, and of those, 385,000 were electric buses.

05:08 Christian Londono: And then what’s interesting about this is, okay, that accounts for 13% of the fleet worldwide that is electrified by the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018. And, you know, we just mentioned Shenzhen, 16,000 buses. So we’re thinking, okay, well, is it that 13% of the world, or, you know, that 13% is, is spread out around the world? Well, the reality is no. And as a matter of fact, 13% of buses worldwide were electric at the beginning of 2018 because of China. And actually, at that point in 2017, China already had 17% of the fleets circulating in China electrified—17%. And at the same time in the US, the penetration of battery electric buses was 0.5%. So it just shows that contrast, right, like how much advanced China was compared to, you know, the introduction of electrification.

06:07 Christian Londono: And I think, I don’t know if you know, you could share when you started hearing about electric buses in the U.S., but I think that some of those pilots and, and first implementations were around that time frame. What, what do you know about that?

06:23 Levi McCollum: Yeah, it was around 2017 really where the wave kind of started to hit the United States, maybe 2016. But, but, you know, I became more familiar with it in 2017, especially with the Low or No Emission Grant, you know, the 5339(c) grant. That one was big. And it’s continued to pump money into the United States economy. And as a result, we’ve been able to get electric buses now for, for several years. So I think that was around the first time.

06:54 Christian Londono: Yeah, I think that I recall about the same, you know. In Florida, I know PSTA, Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, was one of the leading transit agencies in Florida altogether. And they pretty much were the first to implement and also to learn from their implementation and share their experience with the state and with the country. I remember going to different conferences and different members from the PSTA team actually presenting and sharing best practices, recommendations, what they learned, and some of the things they wish they knew before going into the technology, and their experience.

07:34 Christian Londono: And they have actually tested different manufacturers. They’ve ordered from different manufacturers and evaluated different technologies. And of course, the ones that went into it first, those first technologies compared to what’s available today in the market are very outdated. You know, the range of these vehicles was very, very minimal. Now the vehicles are coming with more range. So of course, you know, when you’re the first one, you know, trying a technology, there’s those growing pains. But all of the transit agencies that are kind of like coming after the fact or trying to catch up with those agencies, they’re learning from them. So this is a big contribution to the industry, and we have to thank all those agencies that started trying those technologies first and kind of like teaching the rest of the industry about their implementations.

08:18 Levi McCollum: Yeah, I think it’s a great point. There are certainly those leaders in any industry who are going to take that first step. And that’s a really difficult one to make when it’s a new technology. Speaking of which, there are several cities throughout the world, besides those in China, that are taking that first step. You know, a place that’s near and dear to both of us, Latin America. There are many cities that are taking this plunge. You know, there are cities in Brazil like São Paulo. I know in your home country of Colombia that there are a couple of cities, Bogotá, Medellín. Do you want to explain any of your background with Colombia and what they’re doing? Because I know that they’re making some pretty decent strides in electrifying their fleet. They have some lofty goals. I’d like to learn more about that if you have more to share.

09:11 Christian Londono: Of course, definitely. Many of these metropolitan cities in Latin America, in different countries, are, of course, making headway towards the implementation of zero-emissions technology, particularly focusing on battery electric buses. So, you know, I’m originally from Colombia, South America, and just two years ago, in 2023, I went to visit some friends in Bogotá, and it was very interesting seeing electric vehicles now running into the streets. And this is Bogotá, particularly. You’re talking about, I think, the number one BRT transit system in the world. They transport about 2.5 million passengers a day. So you can, you know, kind of imagine how robust and how big it is.

09:50 Christian Londono: And also the importance when there’s a massive system like that where, you know, at that point or before they started the transition, it was operating diesel buses. So, you know, this is another city that I would tell you had issues with pollution and the quality of air. So, of course, it’s important that these cities are making headway towards this transition. But Bogotá, particularly, they committed in 2022 to stop procuring fossil fuel buses. So since then, they have not bought even one bus that is, you know, diesel or any fossil fuel. They’re specifically transitioning to battery electric buses. So, you know, that’s very encouraging.

10:38 Christian Londono: And that’s not the only application. Another major metropolis in South America is São Paulo in Brazil, which operates a fleet of over 13,000 buses. And they have also banned the procurement of new diesel buses as well. So you can see, you know, this is commitment in South America as well. São Paulo is targeting the end of 2024 as their goal. So I’m interested, you know, to know if they actually achieved that. But they were targeting 2,600 electric buses to be in operation. So again, their fleet is 13,000, you know, and 2,600 is a portion of that big 13,000 fleet, but it’s significant headway. And knowing that they’re committed to not order one more fossil fuel bus in the future, I think that’s significant. Have you heard of any agency in the U.S. doing the same?

11:35 Levi McCollum: As far as 100% electric buses already? I know there’s Antelope Valley Transit Authority. I think we mentioned them last time. But of course, there are some that have set some pretty lofty goals. Los Angeles Metro, I know, is one. I’m not sure about their exact timeline—maybe 2030 or 2032, something like that, that they would be 100% electric. But, you know, the reality is that we don’t have the manufacturing capabilities to be able to meet some of those targets, at least for all agencies. You know, maybe there are a handful that could get there, depending on your fleet size, of course.

12:19 Levi McCollum: But if you look at Latin America in particular, they have a lot in common with what’s going on in China because those buses are Chinese for the most part. I mean, you and I both know this. You grew up in Colombia, but I’ve been to Latin America on and off now for 15 years, and a lot of things are Chinese, right, including the buses. And, you know, BYD, I think, was a big part of making sure that there was enough production to be able to meet the demand in Latin America. BYD is now called Ride in the United States, but BYD elsewhere. Any thoughts on the manufacturing and just having that production line ready for international markets?

13:06 Christian Londono: Yeah, BYD, Levi, at least from what I’ve read and what I studied preparing for today’s episode, BYD is the leader globally. And it’s interesting because, as you alluded to, South America, they’re buying a lot of BYDs—not just BYD, there’s another major Chinese manufacturing company, I think the name is Yutong. So that’s another leading manufacturer.

13:32 Christian Londono: But then what is common is in Europe, Asia, Latin America, they’re buying Chinese buses. And then, you know, many of these regions are not known for manufacturing their own buses altogether. So I guess they were already buying buses from the international market. And maybe the Chinese bus is also a good return on investment—like, maybe it’s very cost-efficient as well. But that might be something that is helping them with the adoption of the technologies, that they’re buying from manufacturers that are available in other places around the world, not just those that are made in the same country, like in the U.S. particularly.

14:09 Christian Londono: And, you know, I had the privilege of being very involved with Palm Tran with the procurement of the first round of battery electric buses. Then the market in the U.S. has been very limited. We know about Gillig, we know about New Flyer. We also had, at some point, BYD, but then, all of a sudden, it was deemed not eligible for Buy America. So a lot of agencies were not able to buy BYDs anymore. And then we also have Proterra, and then Proterra filed for bankruptcy and disappeared from the market. So we were literally, for the most part, left with two manufacturers to choose from in the U.S. for electrifying fleets.

15:06 Christian Londono: Versus, you know, back to South America, they’re buying from what’s available in the global market. So they’re choosing from all the manufacturers. And when we’re looking at Europe and some of these other places and the types of vehicles they’re buying, you know, they get to choose from up to 15 different manufacturers around the world. So it’s very interesting. In particular in Europe, you see Mercedes-Benz, which is a German company—they make electric buses. So again, outside of the U.S., it’s not just Gillig and New Flyer. There are just so many other manufacturers to choose from.

15:46 Levi McCollum: Yeah, politically, we just have a different landscape here. There’s a different understanding about how we should use public monies to be able to procure goods and services. You know, I’m putting you on the spot here, Christian, but does Buy America hurt us here? You know, I’m sure that a lot of money has been pumped back into the American economy. You know, there aren’t many arguments against that. But it seems like in this particular case, we’re at a disadvantage. I mean, would you agree?

16:10 Christian Londono: Yeah, I see that negative impact. Right. Like, you know, we talk about… there’s, I think, a lot of known reasons why Buy America is important for the U.S. economy, and it’s a good policy in terms of the benefits. But then there’s also the negative impact, right? Which is, you know, reading about implementations in other countries and the description of the technology—more different types of vehicles that are electric, different types of technologies, battery technologies, charging technologies, range.

16:43 Christian Londono: And then, of course, we talk about available manufacturers, right? So, let’s say other countries in the world get to select manufacturers outside of their country. Rightly, they’re looking at the full catalog of what’s available with the technology versus in the U.S., we look at the catalog… and I think at a lot of the conferences and so on we go to, we look at what’s available in the U.S., and everything that’s talked about in a lot of these conferences is what’s in the U.S., and this is the technology that we use, and this is what it is.

17:15 Christian Londono: And then that’s the downside, right? Like, the implication, the negative implication, is we’re not taking advantage of some of these technologies, learning about these technologies. And then the last piece that I think is another negative implication is the lead time, right? When you’re depending on two manufacturers to build all the electric vehicles for the U.S., both of those were traditionally manufacturers of diesel vehicles, and they’re, you know, dabbing into the electric vehicle market. You know, it just puts you in a very, you know, disadvantageous place, right?

17:50 Christian Londono: These are manufacturers in places where they can deliver so much quicker. A lot of them, because they are committed just to battery electric vehicles, such as the case of Volvo in Sweden. They committed, I think it was 2022, to only building battery electric buses. They stopped building any diesel buses. So again, I think that that policy, that’s the negative implication that I see.

18:26 Levi McCollum: Yeah. And I think we’d be remiss without talking about some of the other disadvantages to electric buses. I mean, over the last two episodes, we’ve talked about this range anxiety and, you know, potentially having to increase your fleet size or reduce your service to be able to accommodate these new electric vehicles.

18:45 Levi McCollum: But there are other externalities too. I mean, this is lithium-ion, at least in terms of battery electric buses. I don’t know that we have a really good way of recycling all of those batteries at this point. I mean, we have trouble recycling what we’re producing now. And these batteries are toxic, right? You can’t just throw these in a dumpster somewhere and say, like, “Good riddance.” It’s not that easy. So if you’re talking about 16,000 buses in Shenzhen and another 10,000 buses in Bogotá, what happens to these lithium-ion batteries at the end of their life? It’s not really a problem that we’ve had before.

19:24 Levi McCollum: You know, of course, diesel buses and gasoline vehicles, of course, they have batteries, but I think this scale and the size of the batteries, what’s contained in the batteries, makes this pretty complicated.

19:38 Christian Londono: Yeah, that’s definitely been part of the discussion. When you talk about battery electric buses, you’re talking about zero emissions, right? And the whole premise is zero emissions. But then what’s the environmental implication of batteries at the end of their lives? I know that in some cases, they’re repurposed. So some agencies use some of their retired batteries from service to store power.

20:04 Christian Londono: So as long as the battery is still in good condition after so many miles, they still take them off the buses because batteries start decreasing in quality when it comes to holding charge. So, you know, a brand new bus holds charge very well. But as the bus ages, especially the batteries, as they age, the range of the bus starts decreasing with time. So, you know, agencies are put in a place where they have to replace old batteries with new batteries to regain that range.

20:36 Christian Londono: But some of them use the old batteries as storage for power. You know, a lot of transit agencies that electrify and do these types of things can actually resell power back to the power company. So that’s one implementation I’ve heard about. And I know that it’s a growing market now for recycling batteries. You know, batteries are in almost every device now—from wireless speakers to your cell phone to your computer.

21:04 Christian Londono: All this is lithium-ion batteries that also need to be recycled at the end of their life. But yeah, I mean, that’s another implication. I honestly want to research more about what’s happening right now and trending with batteries. But yeah, some claim that that zero emission is not that clean and that zero emissions because there’s a lot of contamination that has to do with, you know, management of the life of a battery. That’s a great point.

21:31 Levi McCollum: Yeah, you know, the discussion that we’re having here, I think, is an important one. And I’m sure we could go on and on about battery electric buses. But I, you know, I would like to start closing this by talking about the C40. C40.org, for those of you who are interested, is a great resource for being able to look at what’s happening in our municipalities around the world and their efforts to reduce global warming.

21:57 Levi McCollum: So, C40 is a global network of about 100 mayors who are leading those cities, and they have a lot of resources online. So, I’d really encourage our audience to go check it out. I think that, you know, what these people are doing is taking the charge. They are certainly leading the way, and we need to be following that type of behavior here in the United States. You know, I hope to see more of those projects happening where we’re decreasing our emissions and also, you know, continuing to improve the lives of American people.

22:33 Christian Londono: Yeah, I think the U.S. is going to continue that trend, and, you know, we’re going to keep learning from one another. I really want to invite our listeners to read about implementations in other places outside of the U.S., because I think we can learn a lot from those different scenarios.

22:50 Christian Londono: We do a lot of benchmarking and comparing notes among transit agencies inside of the U.S., but you can learn a lot by looking outside of the U.S. as well. There’s a projection by Bloomberg, and analysts are saying that 86% of the global fleet—we just alluded to that global fleet at the beginning of our episode today—86% of that fleet is going to reach electric buses by 2050.

23:17 Christian Londono: So, the projection is that globally, we’re going to be making headway towards that. And, you know, I certainly want to see U.S. participation in driving that number and at least achieving many of those goals within the United States.

23:34 Levi McCollum: Yeah, that’s a good point. And, you know, a couple other things here that I just want to throw out there for those folks who may not be aware of them. There are some APTA study missions that enable APTA members to go internationally and look at transit and how it’s operated elsewhere.

23:52 Levi McCollum: I don’t know if they’ve had any recently—at least they don’t have these on their website—but I have seen them announced in the past. As recently as 2023, there were a couple of international study missions to Spain and Australia/New Zealand. So that’s something to keep your eye out on. If you’re interested in seeing how transit is operating elsewhere, then that would be a good bet, especially if you or your agency is a member of APTA.

24:22 Levi McCollum: And also, another thing that came on my radar the other day was that the FTA has announced a proposal to waive Buy America for electric minibuses for at least certain manufacturers. Now, briefly, I’ll end with this.

24:37 Christian Londono: Yeah, no, that’s a great point. And you know, I look forward to seeing how that plays out. I think something’s going to have to give in terms of the supply side of the equation. We have to have more supply because the demand for electric vehicles is only going to grow.

24:55 Christian Londono: The orders are going to get bigger and bigger. The goals are going to get more aggressive in terms of Europe. I would recommend for our listeners to maybe visit or learn about the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany. Those are some of the countries I read that are leading the way. England also, particularly in London. There are some interesting implementations and applications where they’re being very aggressive with their electrification—double-decker buses in London that are already battery electric.

25:27 Christian Londono: So, altogether, you know, good examples and practices to learn from. So, you know, very interesting conversation today, Levi. I pretty much enjoyed it 100%. There’s so much more to talk about in this industry, particularly when you look globally. But I look forward to potentially, in the future, considering a third episode where we continue this conversation and pick it up again to see what the updates are, especially in the U.S. with this technology.

25:54 Levi McCollum: Yeah. Or just a trip to Spain, you know? That would also be great too, to be able to experience it in person.

26:01 Levi McCollum: All right. Well, thank you to all of our listeners. We will be back next Monday with another episode.

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Levi McCollum
Co-Host
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Christian Londono
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Senior Customer Success Manager

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Jose Mostajo
Producer
Business Development Manager